My Current Research Projects
My Current Research Projects
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Painted Lemons: Producing (Credible) Information in the Art Market
Painted Lemons: Producing (Credible) Information in the Art Market
What is the value of information in the art market?
How does the market react to an exogenous shock in the credibility of the information?
Intermediaries are central to the functioning of (financial) markets by mitigating problems of asymmetric information. While theoretical models are well developed, empirical identification of the impact of information production on prices and market efficiency remains scarce due to endogeneity.
This paper provides causal evidence by examining the 19th-century British art market. I employ a difference-in-differences approach, leveraging a change in legal precedence that assigned greater liability to intermediaries. Prior to the court ruling, information produced about attribution lacked credibility, resulting in little variation in prices across different attribution levels. However after credibility was exogenously increased, the market segmented: artworks with stronger attribution commanded significant price premia and were more likely to be sold. The analysis further shows that reputation can function as a partial substitute for legal enforcement: Christie’s exhibited limited change in behavior, suggesting that its established reputation already lent credibility to its attributions.
Value Investor in the Art Market: The National Gallery, 1824 - 1994
Value Investor in the Art Market: The National Gallery, 1824 - 1994
What does a value investing strategy look like in the art market?
Can the National Gallery outperform the art market?
This is the first study looking at the financial return of a museum. The National Gallery relied on purchases to expand their collection. Budget constraints and scrutiny on spending forced the museum to be a value investor.
I constructed a new data set on the value of artworks purchased by the museum by hand-collecting insurance valuations. These valuations are superior to the predominantly used auction prices in reflecting the market value of the artwork: They are based on recent transaction prices without the day-specific factors present in auction prices.
The National Gallery outperforms the British art market on average by 27% annually (risk-adjusted). Contrary to previous literature, outperformance is not confined to a single group of artworks.
Indian Equity Returns since 1900
Indian Equity Returns since 1900
(with David Chambers, Maanik Nath and Elias Ohneberg)
(with David Chambers, Maanik Nath and Elias Ohneberg)
How do Indian equity returns compare in the long run?
How have returns changed over the 20th century?
This paper examines the performance of equities listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange from 1907 to today. We construct a new series of annual returns for the period 1907–1958 and address three questions. First, we compare Indian equity performance in real terms over the first half of the twentieth century with subsequent performance. Second, we compare Indian equity returns in the first half of the twentieth century with returns from other emerging markets over the same period. Third, we contrast the importance of
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